A vicious circle that is countered primarily by a broad ignorance «To what extent is Austria prepared for such a scenario?
“A vicious circle that is countered mainly by a broad ignorance”
To what extent is Austria prepared for such a scenario? Not at all. Because we have known since 2015 from the study “Food provision in Austria” that around a third of the population can take care of themselves for a maximum of four days and around two thirds for a maximum of one week. The supply of essential goods will not be able to start again until the second week at the earliest. But then we will already have around six million people who are starving. What is even worse is that this also affects those people and their families who work for emergency services or companies that should keep the emergency supply running or organize the restart. Therefore, there is not only a lack of organizational measures, but above all the essential basis: people’s ability to provide for themselves. Without this, many organizational measures will not work. A vicious circle that is countered mainly by a wide range of ignorance.
Also read: Prepper: How to Prepare for the Emergency
How can you as a citizen optimally prepare for a blackout? It’s actually quite simple: each of us should be able to take care of ourselves for at least two weeks. This includes 2 liters of water per person per day. That for 3-5 days, should there also be a problem with the water supply. Preserved food and medication for two weeks. A battery radio (don’t forget your car radio!), Flashlights, first aid equipment, garbage bags and, if necessary, food for small children or pet food. What has been recommended by the civil defense associations for a long time. We can all contribute something very quickly and easily so that it doesn’t hit us quite so badly. We just have to want it and do it. Then, even in small apartments, you can stow something away. But one thing can be forgotten: There will be no help from anywhere else! Only the neighborhood help. But if everyone has nothing, they don’t exist either.
“Each of us should be able to take care of ourselves for at least two weeks”
Is there such a thing as a code of conduct in the event of a blackout? Yes, I have my own checklist on my homepage (
www.saurugg.net/selbsthilfe
) to disposal. The most important thing is that we have to help each other in our own environment. As long as we stick together and try to overcome the crisis together, we can do it. The emergency organizations are affected themselves and have their own families. Therefore the aid has to be organized locally. And we all have to help.
“In the event of a blackout, we will probably no longer have this luck on our side.”
What are the economic costs? What does this mean for the domestic economy? There is also a scientific study here that has come to the conclusion that a one-day power failure would cost around a billion euros.help me essay 123 I’m afraid that is only a fraction of the real damage, since this calculation could only calculate the non-feasibility of services. In the production environment, enormous damage to systems is to be expected. In addition, as a current study by the Complexity Science Hub Vienna shows, there is a risk of cascading international supply chain failures with unimaginable consequences. Should there be a blackout as described here, it would lead to the greatest catastrophe after the Second World War and trigger a global shock. The corona crisis has shown how dependent we are now. We have been very lucky so far that it hasn’t gotten worse. In the event of a blackout, we will probably no longer have that luck on our side.
When was the last blackout in Austria? There has not yet been a blackout in the overall system in Europe. Due to our central location, a purely Austrian blackout can also be ruled out almost certainly. It is a different matter in a peripheral area, such as 2003, where all of Italy failed. However, this event cannot be compared with a supra-regional failure under today’s framework conditions. If you consider how many IT dependencies we have today and what the situation was like back then. As a reminder, the first smartphones didn’t hit the market until 2007.
Austria is still struggling with the corona crisis. Was it well prepared for the pandemic in this country? No, almost not. It was only when the crisis had already set in that people really reacted and tried, for example, to find protective equipment. Luckily, the lockdown was imposed at the right time, largely due to the shocking but exaggerated images from Italy. Our advantage was that we could afford a good health system and therefore had more buffers. If the containment had not succeeded so quickly or if the virus had behaved more aggressively, developments could have been very different. Therefore, we can understand the corona crisis as a warning and better prepare for strategic shocks. Because luck will not always be by our side.
“Unexpected, major shock events can occur more quickly than we could previously imagine.”
What can or have you learned from the corona crisis that could also be helpful for a blackout? The most important finding: Unexpected, major shock events can occur more quickly than we could previously imagine. The dependencies and the consequences of the international supply chains became more widely visible for the first time. Empty shelves were hard to imagine until now. Everything worked. In the event of a blackout, everything is over immediately. You only have available what you have prepared and provided for. An improvisation then only works at the local level. The greatest learning success would be if we saw provision and robustness again as a natural part of our life and as something valuable. In human history, prevention has always been a question of survival and it is still today for most people on earth. Only we in Central Europe, because of the very high security of supply, have given ourselves the illusion that all of this is no longer necessary. This could turn out to be a fatal error where learning would come too late. We shouldn’t risk that.
Statements by our interlocutors reflect their own views. News.at does not adopt statements made by its interlocutors in interviews and discussions.
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Rigi9 Wed., July 8th. 2020 20:12
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Not bad at all for some areas, e.g. Cell phone etc.
Page 1 of 1 ”
Herbert Saurugg, international blackout and energy transition expert, expects a blackout in the next five years.
About Herbert SauruggHerbert Saurugg is an international blackout and energy transition expert, President of the Austrian Society for Crisis Prevention (GfKV), author of numerous specialist publications and a sought-after keynote speaker and interview partner on a Europe-wide power and infrastructure failure. For around 10 years he has been dealing with the increasing complexity and vulnerability of vital infrastructures as well as possible solutions for how the security of supply can be made more robust. He runs an extensive specialist blog at
www.saurugg.net
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News: A few weeks ago, SPÖ defense spokesman Robert Laimer warned of a risk of blackout: “The corona crisis is far from being digested, the next crisis is already looming: A blackout,” said Laimer. How real is this danger? Herbert Saurugg: Unfortunately, very real. The past few weeks in particular have been an enormous challenge for system security. This time not because of too little, but because of too much electricity. The situation has stabilized again with the end of the lockdown. But now the next challenges are just around the corner: Should it come to a very hot and dry summer with extreme weather events, as announced.
The situation in Poland was already very critical in August 2015 because power plants could no longer be adequately cooled. It was at escalation level 19 of 20, shortly before area shutdowns. If something goes wrong in such a situation, the famous domino can fall over and sweep large parts of Europe away. We have a European network that only works as a whole. That is easily forgotten. Should there be an additional major incident somewhere in a tense situation, as was the case two weeks ago in Switzerland, where a large electricity pylon was blown up, i.e. sabotaged, it could trigger an incredible catastrophe.
The Austrian Armed Forces, like me, expect such an event to occur within the next five years. The situation has been worsening for years and what is planned for the next three to five years, especially in Germany, keyword nuclear and coal phase-out, will not work out technically and physically. This will work for most of the year, but that is not enough in the power supply system. Here the balance has to be balanced at every moment, otherwise it will collapse.
“In the event of a blackout, almost everything comes to a standstill in a timely manner”
“The effects would hit the Austrian population much harder than the Corona crisis,” said Laimer. What effects would a blackout have? In the event of a blackout, i.e. a Europe-wide power, infrastructure or supply failure, almost everything comes to a standstill in a timely manner: No light, no cell phone, no internet, no landline, no cooking, no traffic lights, no refueling, no cash registers, the public Traffic stands still, elevators and ski lifts get stuck.
The problem is not the power failure alone. The network operators have been preparing for this for a long time. The real sticking point is the telecommunications supply, which will not work for a long time even if the electricity is already flowing again, which can be expected in Austria after about a day. However, it will probably take several days after that before the cell phone and data networks are working again. On the one hand, because many technical problems and on the other hand, massive overloads are to be expected. And without telecommunications there is neither production nor distribution of goods. And that gets really dramatic because very few people are prepared to be able to take care of themselves for at least two weeks. But we will need that.
Much could be organized and improvised during the corona crisis. None of this will work in the event of a blackout. At least not in phase 1 + 2.
© Herbert Saurugg / provided The phases of a blackout
What is a blackout in comparison to a power failure anyway? Most of us have already experienced a power failure. A line fails somewhere. Mostly by an excavator or by storms. A replacement circuit can then usually be made and the power supply will work again within minutes or sometimes a few hours. In the event of a blackout, however, the power grid will completely collapse. A collapse. Power plants switch off for their own protection and most of them can no longer start up by themselves. Only so-called black start-capable power plants can do that. With these, a network is gradually built up again and the other power plants are switched on. This takes a while. According to the experts, it will take at least a week until a stable power supply is available again throughout Europe.
“A vicious circle that is countered mainly by a broad ignorance”
To what extent is Austria prepared for such a scenario? Not at all. Because we have known since 2015 from the study “Food provision in Austria” that around a third of the population can take care of themselves for a maximum of four days and around two thirds for a maximum of one week. The supply of essential goods will not be able to start again until the second week at the earliest. But then we will already have around six million people who are starving. What is even worse is that this also affects those people and their families who work for emergency services or companies that should keep the emergency supply running or organize the restart. Therefore, there is not only a lack of organizational measures, but above all the essential basis: people’s ability to provide for themselves. Without this, many organizational measures will not work. A vicious circle that is countered mainly by a wide range of ignorance.
Also read: Prepper: How to Prepare for the Emergency
How can you as a citizen optimally prepare for a blackout? It’s actually quite simple: each of us should be able to take care of ourselves for at least two weeks. This includes 2 liters of water per person per day. That for 3-5 days, should there also be a problem with the water supply. Preserved food and medication for two weeks. A battery radio (don’t forget your car radio!), Flashlights, first aid equipment, garbage bags and, if necessary, food for small children or pet food. What has been recommended by the civil defense associations for a long time. We can all contribute something very quickly and easily so that it doesn’t hit us quite so badly.